What's the Worst Case Scenario for Nintendo's Next Console?

This week's column comes by way of a Question Block asked during the most recent episode of Nintendo Voice Chat (NVC 670, if you're reading this in the distant, or not so distant, future). I like the question a lot, because it dovetails nicely with the subject of last week's column, where I went through my list of wants and "don't wants" for Nintendo's next console.

Via the unofficial NVC Facebook group, Sam Roberts asks: "What is the worst case scenario for the 'Switch 2?'

A question with infinite answers, honestly. Creating a console made entirely of diamonds, for example, would price it out of range of all but the richest kings of Europe. Inventing organic game cartridges with chimeric DNA that scream every time you put them into the console is another worst-case, but rather than focus on the limitless - but completely unlikely - scenarios, I'm going to instead focus on missteps well within the realm of possibility.

Worst Case Scenario 1: It's Not Backwards-Compatible

This is probably the biggest blunder Nintendo could make with the follow up to its next console, but the sad truth is it might not be that far out of the realm of possibility, for various reasons. Technologically, it doesn't seem like it's too hard to just slap the brains of the Switch inside a new, more powerful console, or to just crank the framerate and graphics sliders up on more powerful hardware.

Organic game cartridges with chimeric DNA that scream every time you put them into the console is a worst-case.

If the next console uses a chip with different architecture than the current Tegra, it would require a layer of software emulation to get Nintendo Switch games running. If the next Nintendo console isn't up to the task of emulating its predecessor in an acceptable fashion, Nintendo could just pass on it as a feature rather than face blowback for bad emulation.

The Switch wouldn't be as hard as something like the N64 (look at the NSO N64 games and how they STILL sometimes don't run correctly), but it's possible it could be a tech headache and Nintendo drops it altogether.

If the Switch follow-up lacks backward compatibility, a whole lot of Switch owners will be left holding onto a second console to play their library. Hardcore gamers who already own a dozen or more consoles won't mind, but those aren't the people Nintendo is courting with its hardware. It would also be a huge public relations blunder.

Backwards compatibility is enormously important in the minds of gamers.

The last few generations have proved, regardless of how much people actually use it, backwards compatibility is enormously important in the minds of gamers. Remember when we all thought the PS5 was going to play every PlayStation game, ever? Well, some of us did, and Xbox fans sure do love talking about how they can play Fusion Frenzy any time they want, in 4K.

Plausibility: I'd say it's not likely, but entirely possible, because as Kat said on the show this week, "Nintendo."

Worst Case Scenario 2: It's Confusing

There's always a little confusion around a new console, and the discourse doesn't seem to mind helping to stoke the flames of confusion, even if there's nothing to be confused about. Remember when everyone was saying grandmas were going to go into GameStops and buy an Xbox One X because they wouldn't know their grandchild actually wanted an Xbox Series X, thus ruining Christmas? It was a whole thing, a very dumb thing, but nonetheless there is often confusion when a new console comes out, real or imagined.

The Wii U is probably the ultimate example of a console confusing consumers.

The Wii U is probably the ultimate example of a console actually confusing consumers. If you've watched NVC (Thursdays at 6:30 ET/3:30 PT on IGN.com and YouTube!), you know I've said a million times how much I enjoyed my Wii U, but I personally know people who just didn't get it.

One friend of mine bought his son a Wii U because they had a road trip coming up and he thought the game pad worked on its own. The name "Wii U" didn't help much, either, because it didn't make itself known instantly as something entirely new. It was just a vowel at the end of the name of a super-successful product, and why would anyone outside of Wheel of Fortune buy a vowel?

The New Nintendo 3DS also suffered from being confusing, although the upgraded version of the 3DS sold almost as well as the Wii U. But certain games could ONLY be played on the New Nintendo 3DS hardware, and it wasn't immediately obvious which ones unless you were savvy enough to know there was a difference between the 3DS and the New Nintendo 3DS.

It split the user base, which Nintendo has done in the past with stuff like the N64 memory expansion, but at least the memory expansion didn't require you to purchase a whole new console (New Nintendo 64 XL?).

Plausibility: There are tons of ways Nintendo could muddle the messaging around its next console, but ever since the Switch reveal, Nintendo has been batting close to a thousand when it comes to marketing. We got a few trickles of info over the years about Tears of the Kingdom, then, BAM, they gave us a whole bunch, but it was JUST the right amount. I mean, it helps TOTK is the best game ever made, but Nintendo seems to have really figured it out.

Worst Case Scenario 3: It Costs Too Much for What It Is

The "4K" PS5 and Xbox Series X have been on the market for three years this November, which is absolutely bonkers. While neither of them has yet seen a significant price drop, we've started to see deals on bundles, where you can get a console and a game for the price of just the console. Before you know it we're going to see slim versions, costing less, and serious price drops for the first-edition of the hardware.

If Nintendo announces its next console, and it's a hybrid like the Switch, and it costs more than $400, people are going to turn up their noses. We just saw the first-ever sale on the Steam Deck, which is more powerful than the Nintendo Switch by a fair amount, so there's a lot of downward pressure on Nintendo. The convenience of a hybrid design might not be that appealing when you can buy a much more powerful console for less.

Plausibility: Nintendo has traditionally bowed out of the console-power race, but with 4K TVs being the standard now, there might be a temptation to try and add more power to the next console, which could drive up the price. I think this is the least plausible, honestly, but not so fanciful that I can rule it out completely.

I'm fairly confident Nintendo is going to check the right boxes when it announces its next console. I'm also pretty sure at least one decision will baffle us, like online will still require friend codes, or it'll make it so the existing dock still works but only if you turn it sideways or something. But what about you, what do you think is the worst case scenario for Nintendo's next console?

Seth Macy is Executive Editor, IGN Commerce, and just wants to be your friend. You can find him hosting the Nintendo Voice Chat podcast.

source https://www.ign.com/articles/whats-the-worst-case-scenario-for-nintendos-next-console